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Metal price dynamics in Lithuania and the world in Q2-Q3 2025: What moves the market?
In the spring and summer of 2025, a bipolar trend prevailed in the market of metals: ferrous metals (steel, scrap, iron) in Europe slid downwards due to sluggish demand, while non-ferrous metals (especially copper) fluctuated extremely widely, with US tariff policies leading to price records and historical imbalances between the New York (COMEX) and London (LME) exchanges. In Lithuania, prices of industrial producers decreased in August, while scrap metal purchase prices in the third quarter stabilized in many places at ~215-225 €/t for the dimensional ferrous metal scrap in the second quarter.
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Global directions (Q2-Q3 2025)
1) Tariffs, sanctions and move of transactions: The plans announced (and specified in the summer) by the US to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported copper shot the prices at COMEX to a record level of ~$5.28/lb at the end of March, and, on July 8, the news of accelerating tariffs pushed the price up again. A historic COMEX-LME “bonus” was formed, which changed the logistics of flows and trading strategies. In addition, the market was restructured by the sanctions imposed by the US and the UK in April 2024 on Russian aluminium, copper and nickel: LME prohibited the acceptance of Russian metal produced after 13/04/2024 into the “warrant” (older production – only with restrictions). This dramatically changed warehousing/rewarranting practices and time differences..
2) Europe – slowdown in demand and HRC/scrap pressure: The autumnal mood in Europe in 2025 has been evident since the start of the third quarter – steel prices slid due to weak demand, while the steel and sheet metal market showed pressure in August and September (Eurometal/Fastmarkets). The benchmark of the Ferrous scrap (HMS 1/2 80:20) in Turkey in the end of the second quarter rolled to ~336 $/t CFR, which is a good indicator point for the entire region.
3) Iron ore and China: The weakness of China’s real estate sector and intermittent production limits put pressure on the price of iron ore, which tended to fall at the beginning of Q2, with around 100-105 $/t in Singapore in Q3; Imports have been surging, partly due to price and inventory optimization.
4) Aluminium and nickel – different stories: In the aluminium market in Q2 banks (e.g. Goldman Sachs) forecasted a softening in Q3 (~2,000 $/t monthly average), however, at the end of the summer, there were increasing signs of a structural approach to deficit (Citi), especially due to the China’s 45 Mt/year ceiling and the geography of LME inventories. Nickel is at a surplus low: investment funds began betting in September that the price had bottomed out, even though LME stocks are high and Indonesian supply dominates.
5) Regulatory background (EU): As of 2026, the CBAM will come into full force – 2023-2025 was a transition period with reports, and from 2026 it will be necessary to purchase CBAM certificates for imported steel/aluminium. By the fourth quarter of 2025, proposals for the revision and expansion of the CBAM are awaited. In addition, the new EU Regulation (2024/1157) on shipments of waste will tighten rules on the export of waste/raw materials (including scrap metal) as of 2026-2027, including the digital DIWASS system and restrictions on exports to non-OECD countries. All of this will inevitably affect scrap flows and pricing within the EU.
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Lithuania: prices, industry and energy
Production prices: According to the data of the State Data Agency, prices of industrial production sold by manufacturers in August 2025 decreased by 0.5% (excluding refined petroleum products (-0.2%)) compared to July. This is in line with the general price pressures of European industry and weaker metal chains.
Macro background: In Q2, Lithuania’s economy grew – the Bank of Lithuania recorded an annual increase of 3.1% in GDP, however, the consumption/export structure remains sensitive to external demand and tariff geopolitics.
Energy: At the beginning of the summer of 2025, many “eurocents” hours were recorded on the electricity exchange (a historical low due to wind/solar production), however, in August, the prices shifted closer to the usual level – this is important for the costs of scrap shredding and steel processing.
What do the prices of Lithuanian purchase sites show?
The publicly available price lists for Q3 usually show the ferrous metal scrap price level of around 215-225 €/t:
- APK: – dimensional: 215 €/t; thick-walled OA: 225 €/t (apk.lt)
- Kuusamet (Klaipėda) – dimensional: 220–225 €/t (price list updated in September)
- Kuskolita (Mažeikiai) – dimensional: 215–225 €/t (valid as of 09/09/2025)
At the end of Q2, the regional press and some of the buyers published a wider price range for dimensional scrap: 225-265 €/t (April-May), which corresponds to the stronger background in the Turkish/EU scrap market at that time.
Prices of non-ferrous metals in Q3 in Lithuania remained at a high level (in line with the global variation dynamics):
- Copper purchase: ~6,300-7,100 €/t (Metransa), ~6,700 €/t (Kuusamet – separate position levels).
- Brass: about 4,500-4,900 €/t (Metransa) or ~4.70 €/kg (Algameta), ~4.7 €/kg (Lauzosupirkimas.lt)
Note: The publicly announced prices are indicative: they vary based on quantity, quality, logistics and payment conditions.
Lithuanian market players (non-exhaustive list)
In addition to the mentioned Tolmeta, Žalvaris, Novitera, Vaidva, Šiaulių metalas, Geležinis verslas, Laumina, the prices and services are also actively communicated by APK, Metransa, Metruna, Kuusamet, Algameta, Kuskolita, Geležinis verslas and other.
The movement of prices in Lithuania in Q2 and Q3 (summary)
- Ferrous metals: In Q2 (April to June), prices were slightly firmer (in places up to ~265 €/t), and stabilised in a lower position: ~215-225 €/t in Q3. This is in line with the fall of the Turkish scrap benchmark at the end of Q2 and the sluggish demand for EU steel in Q3.
- Non-ferrous metals: copper price was very volatile (records in the US, LME “lag”), however, it maintained a high level, ranging 6,300-7,100 €/t, in Q3 on Lithuania’s purchase tables; Aluminium purchases depended on type/contamination, and were generally sensitive to LME trends and bonuses.
- Production prices in LT: 0.5% mon./mon. in August, reflecting the overall pressure in the chains.
What’s next (a look into Q4 2025)
- The effect of tariffs and sanctions will remain dominant – the COMEX-LME “scissors”, routes of physical flows and bonuses will depend on them. LME will continue to apply restrictions on Russian metal, which shall affect the geography of warehouses and time differences.
- The approach of the CBAM application (financial phase of 2026) and the new EU waste shipment rules (2026-2027) will encourage more scrap to remain in the EU in the long term, which would structurally support domestic scrap prices (especially for aluminium/steel) but increase the administrative burden for exporters. The debate on the export tax on aluminium scrap (30%) within the EU intensified in September 2025.
- Demand: China’s real estate sector – risk to ferrous metals; green transition investments and AI/data centre infrastructure – support for copper/aluminium consumption.